FAQ: The Iraq Study Group Report

I read the Iraq Study Group (ISG) Report. Here's a summary.

The Report: The Iraq Study Group (ISG) states what is happening in Iraq, who is attacking the USA, the various players, and their motivations.

By understanding this, it is clear 1) this isn't a war 2) the US can neither just pull out nor increase the military (both actions will increase the violence) 3) it offers a course of action, and most importantly, 4) the report explains what is at stake.

The Situation: The very first line states: "The situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating." The violence is much worse that we know. The Pentagon and the White House are concealing the level of violence. As the ISG puts it: "(...) information is systematically collected in a way that minimizes its discrepancy with policy goals." (p. 62, introduction to recommendation 77.) The White House says there are 100 attacks per day. In reality, there are 1,100 attacks per day on US forces (over 30,000 attacks per month, which is increasing 10-30% per month).

The Players: The ISG offers political biographies of the main leaders and factions, including their motivations, views on key issues, goals, and so on. To understand the situation in Iraq, you must know what these factions want. These armed militias are fighting with each other and they all attack the USA. The ISG recommends that to establish stability, these groups should be encouraged to stop fighting and a general amnesty should be granted. The ISG recommends in strong language the US must also accept the amnesty (#36 and 37). Persons whom the US currently describes as terrorists must be given an amnesty.

The Status of the US Military: The ISG interviewed US Army generals and high-ranking US military officers. Based on these interviews, the ISG states: the US military is near collapse. The defense budget is in danger of disarray. The idea of increasing troops in Iraq is not feasible because the US has no more troops (not even 100,000, p. 50). The US Army may not be able to carry out the next troop rotation without undesirable changes. The US military is unable to react to other events at the moment. It will take five years to restore the US military to effectively defend the USA. The US military leadership's relations with the Congress and White House has been damaged and must be repaired. (These are quotes from the ISG.)

Conversion from Military Occupation to Civilian Infrastructural Support: The military occupation of Iraq does not work. Therefore, the ISG recommends US combat troops be withdrawn. Simultaneously, US soldiers and civilians should be placed at all levels of the Iraq government and military to build, develop, train, and guide Iraq into becoming a stable country that can maintain order.

Can Iraq do the job?: Currently, no. The Iraqi military, police, government, etc. are corrupt or damaged. The fatal US decision to shut down the Iraqi government drove the experts and managers out of the Iraqi government. Training the police and military is a problem: men volunteer to get training and weapons so they can attack US troops. The ISG describes our allies as "incompetent, dysfunctional, or subversive." At page 20-21, the ISG describes the various functions of the government: all are bad, corrupt, etc. Several ministries (incl. health, agriculture, and transportation) are controlled by political factions that also are militia; they refuse to work with the US. On page 27, the ISG concludes the current Iraqi government depends on US support.

Recommendation #74: The US should place US government employees in the Iraqi military and government. The US will ask for volunteers. If volunteers don't step forth, the ISG recommends the positions be filled with "directed assignments". Civilian employees of the US government will be forced to go to Iraq. Considering that every faction in Iraq (and most of the countries that border Iraq) have declared open season on Americans with 1,100 attacks per day and a $5,000 bounty for killing an American, it's not clear how the USA will be able to defend American civilians in Iraq.

The American Population: The ISG also discusses the impact of the war on the USA. The war is polarizing the US. 80% of Americans are disillusioned and do not support the war. If Americans see no progress and they continue to hear lies, they will clamor for a pullout without understanding the consequences. The White House must clearly state the costs of the war instead of hiding the costs. For example, we know the US has spent $400 billion, but most Americans don't realize the war will continue to cost money. If the war were to end today, the final bill comes to two trillion dollars. Several more years of this could bankrupt the USA.

The Choices: On page 30-31, the ISG considers four strategies: pull out, stay the course, more troops, or break up Iraq into three provinces. Pullout will start a regional war. Stay-the-Course will weaken the USA and we are already close to the breaking point. More troops will increase the violence. Breakup will start a regional war. The ISG dismisses these four strategies.

The Recommendations: At page 33 and for the next 30 pages, the ISG gives 79 recommendations. These are not "79 different ideas and pick the ones you like." The recommendations are Iraqification: build up the government, teach it how to function, and let it stand on its own. It also includes how to involve Iraq's neighbors. The most controversial recommendations: the ISG states the US should work with Syria and Iran, and the Israel/Palestinian problem must be solved (p. 39). (Israel rejected the ISG report.)

The ISG states the factions in Iraq must decide whether they want war or stability, and if they choose stability, the US will help. But if they continue to fight, the USA should withdraw. The ISG states this clearly: the US can not become a hostage to Iraq's political battles. At p. 43, milestones are listed.

No Pullout: The American people are not aware that a pullout from Iraq doesn't mean the troops will come home. On the contrary: the region is so critical that the US must move its troops into neighboring countries. We will be in the Middle East for a very long time: probably 20-30 years (that isn't unrealistic: the US has been in Europe and Japan for 50 years).

The Consequences: If the US doesn't fix the problem, Iraq will collapse into a war over the breakup of Iraq. Here is the paradox: The Sunni attack the Iraqi (Shiite) government and USA, but they want a unified Iraq. The Shiites control the government, but they want to break up Iraq (and thus they also attack Sunni and the USA). The USA loses either way: if it supports the Shiite, the Sunni attack. If it supports the Sunni, the Shiite attack. And both attack the US. 80% of Iraqi dislike the USA and 60% approve of attacks on the USA.

The collapse of Iraq will drag its neighbors into war. Turkey will attack if the Kurds get their own province. Saudi Arabia will attack to defend the Sunni and prevent a Iran-influenced Shiite country on its border. Syria will attack for the same reason. These countries do not want war. The US should work with them to influence (or force) the factions in Iraq to stop fighting.

The ISG points out that this war will take place in countries that have a large majority of the world's oil reserves. A regional war would severely affect the US and global economy.

My Conclusions

The Iraq Study Group's Report is dismal. Iraq is bad and it will become worse.

The ISG is an astonishing document, both for what it says (a blunt, honest report on the situation, with a terse assessment of the future) and what it doesn't say (namely, who got us into this disaster.) The ISG states the situation in Iraq without the propaganda of terrorists, WMDs, 9.11, and so on.

Bush has alienated every ally of the USA and threatened everyone one else, incl. Syria and Iran. He even wanted to topple the governments of Saudi Arabia and Egypt. It is not likely any of these countries are going to help him. None of the factions in Iraq support him or trust him.

What do I think will happen? Bush will ignore the ISG. For him, pulling out troops looks like defeat, he can't increase the troops (there aren't more), and he can't maintain the current level because the US military will decay. Bush will hope somehow things will improve. Saudi Arabia is already involved in supplying the Sunni to fight against Iran-backed Shiite militia. Low-level regional chaos will develop. The next president will inherit a very bad situation.

Download Your Copy of the ISG Report

The ISG Report (free, PDF, 62 pages of text in a large font size)